No recession?

You know things have truly reverted back to the pre-pandemic times when Zoom - the one technology that hard-carried us all through the pandemic - has also announced layoffs. It seems everybody is preparing for a recession that just can’t seem to arrive. The January jobs report was surprisingly strong, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest in 50 years. Doesn’t seem like we’re heading into a recession, does it?

I see layoffs in the tech sector as a mere reversion back to the pre-pandemic status quo. These companies hired massively for a reality and eventually that no longer exists. Zoom in particular tripled its headcount during the pandemic. Now that universities like the one I work at will soon return to completely in-person learning, the demand will taper off dramatically. In general, inflation and interest rates are high, therefore the appetite for spending is muted.

Even if most people are gainfully employed.

Still, it sucks tremendously to be laid off. And it doesn’t seem like the tech companies are firing only the people they’ve newly hired for the pandemic. That cohort is cheap compared to the folks who’ve been there for decades. When it comes time to trim the excess, there’s zero obligation to cut based on seniority. I directly know of a friend who got laid off from SalesForce, and she’s been there way before the pandemic years.

That’s what happens when the job is not unionized. I am glad my workplace is. If and when the cut hammer ever strikes again, at least I will have a buffer of 10 years of service credit to insulate me. No guarantees, of course. Which is why like everybody else, I am also personally preparing for a recession that may not arrive.

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Going anywhere.

Sorry to hear

With many big tech companies doing layoffs recently, I didn’t think that someone I personally know would be part of the cohort getting the axe. Not until yesterday, when a friend informed me a mutual friend who works at Salesforce, no longer works at Salesforce. She’s doing relatively okay otherwise. The severance is generous, and she’s been diligent with money for a long time. The savings cushion is for precisely these unfortunate moments in life.

I guess I had the impression that people who’ve been with the company for a long time would be safe from the layoff reaper. Which is why I didn’t exactly worry for my friends who was at Salesforce and is at Google (fingers crossed for that friend). I read a tweet recently of a person who got fired from Google after being there for 20 years. These big tech layoffs aren’t simply to cull the massive headcount increase during the pandemic - it’s an opportunity to reevaluate all areas and get leaner.

I’m glad my workplace unionized, so there is some measure of last-in, first-out during times of austerity. Of course, that cuts both ways: under-performers get saved from termination on the virtue of them being with the company for a long time. It’s not a hard rule, however. During the pandemic, our campus had some layoffs, and no one in our IT support department got axed. Which make sense: you don’t get rid of people in the department that is wholly supporting your remote learning effort.

Obviously then the campus did not expand/hire massively during the pandemic - unlike the big tech companies. So I have to think we’re in better shape to handle the supposedly recession headwinds to come. During these times, everybody wishes they have the security of a government job.

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Torii.

Layoff what ifs

So, my employer - San Francisco State University - is going through with layoffs in response to the budget crater caused by the COVID pandemic. While I am surprised that layoffs are on the table before lesser considerations such as furloughs and pay-cuts were even discussed, it’s not something that I’m really stressing over. Mainly because any decisions is out of my control, and also I am confident in my abilities and fortunes that I will be okay in the long run, whether I stay or go.

But I have done the thought exercise of what if I were to be let go from SFSU? I think it would be a great opportunity to make a big life change, coming off of really the only job I’ve known and done since I got out of college. It would be a great time to consider moving out of San Francisco, perhaps outside of California, or even this beloved country (a friendly wave to Asia). Honestly, that sounds very exciting, and partly why I’m not overly concerned about the looming layoffs.

To make such moves, however, one would need a sufficient capital cushion, and thankfully, I do. It would hurt a ton to have to sell the 911 GT3, but it would net me back just over six-figures, and with that amount in the proverbial pack-pocket, I have the freedom to choose my next destination, and not be in a hurry to do it, too. For sure I am super lucky to have kept my job during this time of coronavirus, while so many millions have lost theirs, and I made sure to save diligently these past five months in the event I do get laid off.

Whichever way the layoff hammer falls for me, I am content and ready for the outcome, and to keep moving forward.

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The greatest game.